Bitcoin realized price today ← is the bottom in?

Realized price is the realized cap divided by circulating supply: the average price at which every bitcoin last moved on-chain. It is the market's aggregate cost basis.

Now
$54,169 (price +54%)
signal off · fires when MVRV < 1
This cycle
not fired
closest: MVRV 1.10 · since the Oct 6, 2025 ATH
Bear market bottom
LIKELY IN
6 of 10 signals fired this cycle · full verdict →

How it's computed

Price ÷ MVRV, using Coin Metrics market and realized cap data since 2010. The signal fires while the daily close is below the realized price (MVRV under 1).

Reading it

Price closed below its realized price at the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022 lows and for six days in March 2020. It did not in 2026; the June low stayed about 11% above the cost basis.

At past bottoms

Jan 2015 FIRED
Dec 2018 FIRED
Mar 2020 FIRED
Nov 2022 FIRED
Jun 2026 missed

Within 30 days of each cycle's lowest daily close.

The low is likely in. What matters now is knowing the moment anything changes. Pro DMs you on Telegram when any signal or the phase flips, on thresholds you set, plus the full signal history as CSV and an API key. Founding price $7/mo · 30-day free trial · cancel anytime
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Questions

Why does realized price act as support?

Below it the average holder is at a loss, and history shows that state resolves within months: either sellers are exhausted or a new cycle begins.

How is realized price different from the 200-week MA?

The 200-week MA is a price average over time; realized price is a volume-weighted cost basis from the blockchain itself. They tend to sit close together at bottoms.

Other bottom indicators

Mayer Multiple · 200-week MA · Hash Ribbons · Puell Multiple · Drawdown from ATH · Fear & Greed · MVRV Z-Score · Pi Cycle Bottom · 2-Year MA Multiplier · Production cost floor