Every time BTC closed below production cost ← home
An episode is a run of consecutive daily closes below the estimated total cost of production. Forward returns are measured from the day price reclaimed the floor — the first moment an observer could confirm the episode was over. Model details →
35 episodes on record · median return 365 days after an episode ended:
+303%
| Start | End | Days | Min price | Max depth vs floor | +30d | +90d | +180d | +365d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-18 | 7 | $4,971 | -20.1% | +35% | +82% | +104% | +1005% |
| 2020-04-14 | 2020-04-15 | 2 | $6,642 | -1.3% | +40% | +39% | +74% | +853% |
| 2020-05-11 | 2020-05-13 | 3 | $8,602 | -35.1% | +2% | +23% | +65% | +436% |
| 2020-05-22 | 2020-05-22 | 1 | $9,183 | -0.2% | +1% | +29% | +94% | +309% |
| 2020-05-28 | 2020-05-28 | 1 | $9,526 | -3.4% | -5% | +21% | +101% | +275% |
| 2020-05-31 | 2020-06-01 | 2 | $9,461 | -15.5% | -9% | +15% | +74% | +261% |
| 2020-06-05 | 2020-06-15 | 11 | $9,322 | -20.4% | -3% | +9% | +99% | +328% |
| 2020-06-17 | 2020-06-18 | 2 | $9,412 | -4.6% | -3% | +17% | +106% | +280% |
| 2020-06-20 | 2020-07-17 | 28 | $9,045 | -22.6% | +30% | +26% | +308% | +245% |
| 2020-07-19 | 2020-07-28 | 10 | $9,164 | -21.9% | +4% | +20% | +196% | +267% |
| 2020-08-04 | 2020-08-04 | 1 | $11,206 | -7.3% | -9% | +21% | +196% | +255% |
| 2020-08-15 | 2020-08-15 | 1 | $11,866 | -4.2% | -10% | +38% | +304% | +296% |
| 2020-08-25 | 2020-08-25 | 1 | $11,366 | -0.2% | -5% | +62% | +406% | +331% |
| 2020-08-29 | 2020-08-29 | 1 | $11,507 | -8.7% | -7% | +49% | +309% | +324% |
| 2020-09-02 | 2020-09-03 | 2 | $10,245 | -6.1% | +3% | +87% | +372% | +388% |
| 2020-09-06 | 2020-09-11 | 6 | $10,132 | -22.1% | +9% | +76% | +438% | +335% |
| 2020-09-13 | 2020-09-19 | 7 | $10,324 | -18.2% | +6% | +109% | +422% | +326% |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020-09-28 | 8 | $10,246 | -21.8% | +24% | +145% | +423% | +283% |
| 2020-09-30 | 2020-10-01 | 2 | $10,619 | -16.5% | +30% | +172% | +455% | +353% |
| 2020-10-03 | 2020-10-06 | 4 | $10,549 | -16.0% | +47% | +201% | +454% | +422% |
| 2020-10-08 | 2020-10-11 | 4 | $10,916 | -14.5% | +34% | +254% | +412% | +405% |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020-10-18 | 6 | $11,322 | -13.4% | +54% | +215% | +436% | +440% |
| 2022-11-09 | 2022-11-09 | 1 | $15,881 | -10.6% | +8% | +46% | +74% | +131% |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022-11-13 | 1 | $16,353 | -10.2% | +9% | +34% | +64% | +123% |
| 2022-11-16 | 2022-11-16 | 1 | $16,669 | -0.8% | -0% | +33% | +63% | +117% |
| 2022-11-21 | 2022-11-21 | 1 | $15,787 | -2.3% | +7% | +54% | +72% | +127% |
| 2022-12-29 | 2022-12-29 | 1 | $16,642 | -4.8% | +38% | +70% | +84% | +153% |
| 2023-01-07 | 2023-01-07 | 1 | $16,955 | -5.1% | +34% | +65% | +76% | +159% |
| 2026-02-16 | 2026-02-16 | 1 | $68,843 | -8.2% | +3% | +12% | — | — |
| 2026-02-23 | 2026-02-26 | 4 | $64,080 | -8.1% | -2% | +10% | — | — |
| 2026-03-06 | 2026-03-06 | 1 | $68,136 | -5.0% | +1% | -6% | — | — |
| 2026-03-29 | 2026-03-29 | 1 | $65,955 | -4.2% | +16% | -9% | — | — |
| 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-24 | 1 | $60,995 | -6.5% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 2026-06-26 | 1 | $60,016 | -5.3% | — | — | — | — |
| 2026-06-28 | 2026-06-28 | 1 | $59,532 | -10.4% | — | — | — | — |