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What is this site?
btcbtfd.com aggregates eight indicators that historically fired at Bitcoin bear-market bottoms — production cost floor, Mayer Multiple, 200-week moving average, Hash Ribbons, Puell Multiple, drawdown from ATH, Fear & Greed, and MVRV — into one live score and verdict on the front page. The flagship input is our own estimate of Bitcoin's cost of production: what it costs the average miner to produce one BTC. When price drops below that cost, miners capitulate and the market is near a cycle bottom — the history page shows every time it happened and what BTC did next.
How is the floor calculated?
The model works like this: take the network hashrate, estimate the fleet-average mining efficiency (J/TH) from real ASIC hardware specs, assume 0.05 $/kWh electricity at a PUE of 1.1, and divide daily network mining cost by the daily BTC issuance. Electricity is assumed to be 60% of total mining cost, which gives the total production-cost estimate. Data updates twice a day from mempool.space, Yahoo Finance, and FRED. Full derivation, hardware database, and 2032 projections: read the research.
Support
This site is free — no ads, no affiliate links, no paywall. If the floor signal ever helps you buy a bottom, send a few sats.
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Embed the floor & free API
Put the live floor signal on your own site, blog, or README — it updates automatically, no key required.
Widget (iframe):
<iframe src="https://btcbtfd.com/widget" width="320" height="110" style="border:0"></iframe>
Badge for GitHub READMEs (markdown) — renders as
:
[](https://btcbtfd.com)
JSON API (CORS open, cached 5 min):
curl https://btcbtfd.com/api/floor
{"price": 61511.0, "floor": 51975.0, "margin_pct": 18.35, "below": false, ...}
curl https://btcbtfd.com/api/signals
{"verdict": "NOT YET", "score": 2, "total": 8, "signals": [...]}