Is Bitcoin bear market bottom in?
Capitulation hit 6 of 10 signals on Jun 24, 2026. Low $58,559 on Jun 30, 2026. Price reclaimed the 200-day MA on Aug 20, 2026 and is now +43% above the low.
Past “likely in” calls since 2015: 4 · low held: 4 · low broken: 0. Small sample — how the verdict works.
| This cycle since Oct 6, 2025 |
Signal | Now | Fires when |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FIRED
Feb 16 – Jun 28 · 10d
|
Mining 1 BTC costs more than it sells for — miners capitulate
|
no
+29% vs floor
|
price < cost |
|
FIRED
Nov 20, 2025 – Jul 1 · 87d
|
Price 20%+ under its 200-day average — deep oversold zone
|
no
1.16
|
< 0.8 |
|
FIRED
Jun 5 – Aug 16 · 26d
|
The long-term holder cost line — every cycle bottom touched it
|
no
+26% vs 200WMA
|
price below |
|
FIRED
Nov 26, 2025 – Aug 26 · 222d
|
30-day hashrate average drops under the 60-day — miners switching off
|
no
30d above 60d
|
30d < 60d |
|
no
closest 0.62
|
Miner revenue at half its yearly norm — issuance-side capitulation
|
no
1.06
|
< 0.5 |
|
no
closest -53% from ATH
|
Past bear markets bottomed 60–85% under the previous top
|
no
-33% from ATH
|
≤ −60% |
|
FIRED
Nov 8, 2025 – Jul 8 · 123d
|
Sentiment at 'extreme fear' — the crowd has given up
|
no
62
|
≤ 20 |
|
no
closest MVRV 1.10
|
Market cap under realized cap — the average coin is held at a loss; same line as NUPL < 0
|
no
Z +0.95 · realized $54,169
|
MVRV < 1 |
|
no
closest EMA/band 1.03
|
150-day EMA under 0.745 × the 471-day SMA — the deep-value crossing that marked the 2015 and 2018 lows
|
no
EMA/band 1.17
|
EMA150 < 0.745·SMA471 |
|
FIRED
Jan 29 – Oct 14 · 258d
|
The 2-Year MA Multiplier's buy zone — under its 2-year average, BTC has always been near a cycle low
|
YES
-6% vs 2Y MA
|
price below |
Each signal fired at or near every major Bitcoin bottom it has data for (2015, 2018–19, 2020, 2022). No single one is reliable alone — the score counts how many independent capitulation conditions are met right now. The verdict above remembers: a capitulation reading (6+ signals) marks a candidate low, a close back above the 200-day MA at least 20% off that low makes it likely in, and a close below the low resets it. Updated twice daily.
The flagship signal: production cost floor
Why it matters
Nobody rings a bell at the bottom — but capitulation leaves fingerprints. Miners shut down unprofitable rigs, long-term holders sit at a loss, sentiment hits extreme fear, and price sinks under its long-term cost anchors. This site tracks ten independent indicators that showed exactly those fingerprints at every major Bitcoin bottom, and combines them into a single live score. The flagship input is our own production-cost model — read how it works →
Frequently asked questions
How do you know when the Bitcoin bear market bottom is in?
Nobody can call the bottom in real time — but past bottoms left a repeating pattern. At every major low (2015, 2018–19, 2020, 2022) at least 6 of these 10 conditions appeared together: price below its production cost, extreme fear, miner capitulation, MVRV under 1 and so on. That reading is capitulation and marks a candidate low. The verdict becomes likely in once price closes back above its 200-day moving average at least 20% above that low — in 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2023 that confirmation came after the final low every time, and never before a lower low (in August 2022 price was still under the 200-day MA, so the June low was not confirmed and November's lower low followed). A daily close below the low resets the call. Four confirmations is a small sample; treat the verdict as a base rate, not a guarantee.
Why does it say LIKELY IN when few or no signals are active?
Capitulation signals fire at the bottom and switch off as price recovers — after the 2018, 2020 and 2022 lows the score was back to 0–1 within two to four months while price was already up 30–100%. A quiet score after a confirmed capitulation is what a bottom looks like in hindsight. The verdict keeps the memory: the capitulation reading, the low it produced, and whether price has reclaimed its 200-day moving average since.
What is Bitcoin's cost of production?
An estimate of what it costs an average miner to produce one BTC, derived from network hashrate, fleet energy efficiency, and industrial electricity prices. Price rarely stays below it for long, because unprofitable miners switch off, reducing sell pressure. Full methodology →
What is the Mayer Multiple?
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. Readings below 0.8 mean price is more than 20% under its long-term trend — historically a deep-value zone that coincided with bear-market bottoms.
What is MVRV?
Market value divided by realized value — it compares today's price to the average on-chain cost basis of all coins. Below 1.0 the average holder is at a loss; MVRV dipped under 1 at the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows.
What are Hash Ribbons?
A miner-capitulation indicator: when the 30-day average of network hashrate falls below the 60-day average, miners are unplugging machines. Major bottoms tend to form during or shortly after these periods.
Can I get an alert when the score changes?
Yes — the free Telegram channel posts whenever the verdict tier changes and whenever Bitcoin crosses its production-cost floor.
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