Is Bitcoin bear market bottom in?
| Signal | Now | Fires when | |
|---|---|---|---|
| no |
Mining 1 BTC costs more than it sells for — miners capitulate
|
+5% vs floor | price < cost |
| no |
Mayer Multiple < 0.8
Price 20%+ under its 200-day average — deep oversold zone
|
0.88 | < 0.8 |
| no |
Price below 200-week MA
The long-term holder cost line — every cycle bottom touched it
|
+3% vs 200WMA | price below |
| YES |
Hash Ribbons capitulation
30-day hashrate average drops under the 60-day — miners switching off
|
30d below 60d | 30d < 60d |
| no |
Puell Multiple < 0.5
Miner revenue at half its yearly norm — issuance-side capitulation
|
0.73 | < 0.5 |
| no |
Drawdown ≥ 60% from ATH
Past bear markets bottomed 60–85% under the previous top
|
-48% from ATH | ≤ −60% |
| no |
Fear & Greed ≤ 20
Sentiment at 'extreme fear' — the crowd has given up
|
25 | ≤ 20 |
| no |
MVRV < 1.0
Market cap under realized cap — the average coin is held at a loss
|
1.24 | < 1.0 |
Each signal fired at or near every major Bitcoin bottom it has data for (2015, 2018–19, 2020, 2022). No single one is reliable alone — the score counts how many independent capitulation conditions are met right now. Updated twice daily.
The flagship signal: production cost floor
Why it matters
Nobody rings a bell at the bottom — but capitulation leaves fingerprints. Miners shut down unprofitable rigs, long-term holders sit at a loss, sentiment hits extreme fear, and price sinks under its long-term cost anchors. This site tracks eight independent indicators that showed exactly those fingerprints at every major Bitcoin bottom, and combines them into a single live score. The flagship input is our own production-cost model — read how it works →
Frequently asked questions
How do you know when the Bitcoin bear market bottom is in?
Nobody can call the bottom in real time — but past bottoms left a repeating pattern. At every major low (2015, 2018–19, 2020, 2022), several of the same conditions appeared together: price below its production cost, extreme fear, miner capitulation, MVRV under 1. This page counts how many of those 8 conditions are met right now; 6 or more has historically only occurred near major cycle lows.
What is Bitcoin's cost of production?
An estimate of what it costs an average miner to produce one BTC, derived from network hashrate, fleet energy efficiency, and industrial electricity prices. Price rarely stays below it for long, because unprofitable miners switch off, reducing sell pressure. Full methodology →
What is the Mayer Multiple?
Bitcoin's price divided by its 200-day moving average. Readings below 0.8 mean price is more than 20% under its long-term trend — historically a deep-value zone that coincided with bear-market bottoms.
What is MVRV?
Market value divided by realized value — it compares today's price to the average on-chain cost basis of all coins. Below 1.0 the average holder is at a loss; MVRV dipped under 1 at the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows.
What are Hash Ribbons?
A miner-capitulation indicator: when the 30-day average of network hashrate falls below the 60-day average, miners are unplugging machines. Major bottoms tend to form during or shortly after these periods.
Can I get an alert when the score changes?
Yes — the free Telegram channel posts whenever the verdict tier changes and whenever Bitcoin crosses its production-cost floor.
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