Bitcoin MVRV Z-Score today ← is the bottom in?
The MVRV Z-Score compares Bitcoin's market cap with its realized cap, the value of every coin at the price it last moved, and scales the gap by the historical volatility of market cap. Below zero, the market trades under its aggregate cost basis.
How it's computed
(market cap − realized cap) ÷ standard deviation of market cap. We use Coin Metrics data from 2010 and an expanding standard deviation with no look-ahead, so readings differ slightly from charts that use the full-history deviation. Below zero is equivalent to MVRV under 1, NUPL under 0 and price under realized price.
Reading it
The Z-Score went negative at the 2015, 2018-19, March 2020 and 2022 lows. In the 2026 drawdown it bottomed just above zero: MVRV never fell below 1.11.
At past bottoms
| Jan 2015 | FIRED |
| Dec 2018 | FIRED |
| Mar 2020 | FIRED |
| Nov 2022 | FIRED |
| Jun 2026 | missed |
Within 30 days of each cycle's lowest daily close.
Questions
What MVRV Z-Score marks a Bitcoin bottom?
Below 0 has been the accumulation zone in every cycle; the deepest readings were around −0.5 in 2015 and 2018.
What is the difference between MVRV and the Z-Score?
MVRV is the plain ratio of market cap to realized cap; the Z-Score expresses the same gap in standard deviations, which makes cycle extremes comparable across a decade of growth.