Bitcoin 200-week moving average today ← is the bottom in?
The 200-week moving average is the mean daily close over the last 200 weeks (1,400 days). It is widely read as the aggregate cost basis of long-term holders and the line that bear markets test.
How it's computed
Rolling 1,400-day mean of daily closes. The signal fires while the daily close is below the line.
Reading it
Bitcoin has touched or briefly undercut its 200-week average at every bear-market low: 2015, the 2018-19 undershoot, the March 2020 wick, five months in 2022, and June-August 2026. It has never stayed below for long.
At past bottoms
| Jan 2015 | no data |
| Dec 2018 | missed |
| Mar 2020 | FIRED |
| Nov 2022 | FIRED |
| Jun 2026 | FIRED |
Within 30 days of each cycle's lowest daily close.
Questions
Why the 200-week MA rather than the 200-day?
The 200-day average tracks the trend; the 200-week average moves so slowly that it acts as a floor. Price below it has meant the average buyer of the last four years is underwater, which is where capitulation ends.
Where is the 200-week moving average now?
The live level is shown above and updates twice a day.