Bitcoin drawdown from all-time high today ← is the bottom in?

Drawdown is the percentage distance between the current daily close and the highest close ever. It is the bluntest bear-market gauge there is.

Now

-33% from ATH

signal off · fires when ≤ −60%

This cycle

not fired

closest: -53% from ATH · since the Oct 6, 2025 ATH

Bear market bottom

LIKELY IN

6 of 10 signals fired this cycle · full verdict →

How it's computed

Close ÷ running maximum close − 1, in percent. The signal fires at or below −60%.

Reading it

Past bear markets bottomed 84% (2015), 84% (2018), 77% (2022) under the previous top; the 2020 crash reached −74% from the 2017 high. The 2026 low stopped at −53%, the shallowest cycle low on record, which is why this signal did not fire.

At past bottoms

Jan 2015	FIRED
Dec 2018	FIRED
Mar 2020	FIRED
Nov 2022	FIRED
Jun 2026	missed

Within 30 days of each cycle's lowest daily close.

The low is likely in. What matters now is knowing the moment anything changes. Pro DMs you on Telegram when any signal or the phase flips, on thresholds you set, plus the full signal history as CSV and an API key. Founding price $7/mo · 30-day free trial · cancel anytime

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Questions

How much does Bitcoin fall in a bear market?

Between 77% and 85% at the close in every cycle before 2026; the 2026 decline was 53%.

Is a smaller drawdown bullish?

It means less forced selling than in past cycles. Whether that is a structural change or an unfinished bear market is exactly what the other signals on this site try to answer.

Other bottom indicators

Mayer Multiple · 200-week MA · Hash Ribbons · Puell Multiple · Fear & Greed · MVRV Z-Score · Realized price · Pi Cycle Bottom · 2-Year MA Multiplier · Production cost floor