Bitcoin Puell Multiple today ← is the bottom in?

The Puell Multiple, by David Puell, is the daily USD value of freshly issued coins divided by the 365-day average of that value. It measures miner revenue against its yearly norm.

Now
1.06
signal off · fires when < 0.5
This cycle
not fired
closest: 0.62 · since the Oct 6, 2025 ATH
Bear market bottom
LIKELY IN
6 of 10 signals fired this cycle · full verdict →

How it's computed

Daily close × block subsidy × 144 blocks, divided by the 365-day mean of the same series. Under 0.5 means miners earn half their yearly average per day.

Reading it

Sub-0.5 readings appeared at the 2015, 2018-19 and 2022 lows and briefly in March 2020. Because the subsidy halves every four years, the multiple drops mechanically after a halving and needs a year to normalise.

At past bottoms

Jan 2015 no data
Dec 2018 FIRED
Mar 2020 missed
Nov 2022 FIRED
Jun 2026 missed

Within 30 days of each cycle's lowest daily close.

The low is likely in. What matters now is knowing the moment anything changes. Pro DMs you on Telegram when any signal or the phase flips, on thresholds you set, plus the full signal history as CSV and an API key. Founding price $7/mo · 30-day free trial · cancel anytime
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Questions

Why does the Puell Multiple fall after a halving?

Issuance halves overnight while the 365-day average still contains pre-halving days, so the ratio drops for up to a year even at a flat price.

What Puell Multiple signals a top?

Readings above 4 have marked the 2013, 2017 and (briefly) 2021 peaks.

Other bottom indicators

Mayer Multiple · 200-week MA · Hash Ribbons · Drawdown from ATH · Fear & Greed · MVRV Z-Score · Realized price · Pi Cycle Bottom · 2-Year MA Multiplier · Production cost floor